Forecast

Five days out, checked against real sessions

Wave Lord's latest forecast run (Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM PT), scored out of 100 and checked against 19 logged sessions.

57OK
Thu Nov 12, 2026
Window06:15-08:00 (or jetty ~10:45-11:30)Faces ft3-5SwellW (270, 13s) + small SWindlight E/NNE to calm, SW 5-10 kt after ~11amTide5.6 ft high 9:39

History check: Closest logged El Porto day: 3.1 ft @ 13.5 s, WSW 254°, 5.9 ft high tide. Wave Lord used how that day actually surfed to set this score.

Model & source numbers
Buoy 46221 0326
Hs 1.0m DPD 13 MWD 270; SwH 0.9m 13.3s W, WWH 0.6m 9.9s W
Buoy 46222
Hs 0.9-1.0m 13s W 260-263
Buoy 46025
1.1m 11-14s WSW/SW
NWS pzz655
W 3ft 13s + S 2ft 14s; light winds, SW 5-10 kt afternoon
Owm gfswave point
0.3m 13s 244 + 0.2m 13s 251 (nearshore point, runs low)
Ecmwf wam point
Hs 0.6m
Wind ecmwf
NNE 1.5-2 kt 5-7am, SE 3 kt 11am, S-SSW 4.5 kt 1-3pm
Wind gfs hrrr
E 3-4 kt 5-9am, SSW 5 kt 11am, SW 8-9 kt 1-3pm
Tide
high 9:39 AM 5.61 ft, low 5:28 PM 0.02 ft
Surfline
API 502, not retrieved
17ft
buoy page fetched (Santa Barbara list), no forecast numbers used
Windy
not retrieved (JS only)
52OK
Fri Nov 13, 2026
Windowdawn-10amFaces ft3-5Swellcombo of W + S (W 3ft 14s + S 2ft 15s per NWS; GFS-wave 0.5m 14.8s 276 + 0.2m 12.7s 209)WindECMWF NE 3-5 kt dawn, GFS SE-E 4-8 kt AM; SW 10-15 kt afternoon; showers/slight tstm chanceTide5.29 ft high 10:13

History check: No close match in the session log yet. Scored from models and break knowledge.

Model & source numbers
NWS
W 3ft 14s, S 2ft 15s
Ecmwf wam
Hs 0.8m
Gfswave
0.6m
42OK
Sat Nov 14, 2026
Windowlow confidence; maybe early if ECMWF light N wind verifiesFaces ft6-10+ (closing out)SwellWNW (big long-period Aleutian) + short W wind swellWindNWS W-NW 10-15 g20; GFS W-SW 6-9 kt; ECMWF light N/NE 0.5-2 kt AM; rain ending AMTide4.93 ft high 10:53

History check: No close match in the session log yet. Scored from models and break knowledge.

Model & source numbers
NWS
W 5ft 6s + W 5ft 14s + S 2ft 15s, seas 5-7
Ecmwf wam
Hs 1.3-1.4m
Gfswave
Hs 1.3m: 0.5m 15.8s 278 + 0.3m 17.6s 241 + ww 1.2m 5.7s
62Good
Sun Nov 15, 2026 ⭐
Windowdawn-10:30Faces ft5-8SwellWNW (W 5ft 16s per NWS, GFS 0.7-0.8m 16s 268) + small S 17sWindECMWF NE 4 kt, GFS E 6 kt morning; light SW afternoonTide4.53 ft high 11:46

History check: Closest logged El Porto day: 4.3 ft @ 17 s, SSW 194°, 4.2 ft high tide. Wave Lord used how that day actually surfed to set this score.

Model & source numbers
NWS
W 5ft 16s, S 2ft 17s
Ecmwf wam
Hs 1.0-1.1m
Gfswave
0.8-0.9m
48OK
Mon Nov 16, 2026
WindowearlyFaces ft4-6Swellcombo of W + S (W 4ft 14s + S 2ft 15s) + building short NW lateWindECMWF E 5-10 kt AM, GFS SE 7 kt AM; rain likely; W 10-15 pm, NW 15-25 nightTide3.47 ft low 7:28, 4.14 ft high 1:04 PM

History check: No close match in the session log yet. Scored from models and break knowledge.

Model & source numbers
NWS
W 4ft 14s, S 2ft 15s
Ecmwf wam
Hs 0.8-0.9m
Gfswave
0.9m: 0.7m 17.8s 275 + 0.3m 14.6s 199

Standouts nearby

Other spots Wave Lord flagged in this run.

74Good
Rincon · Sun Nov 15, 2026
Windowdawn-11amSwellWNW 274 11-12s (open-meteo point 2.4m)Windlight NNE 5 kt 7am

Note: standout watch; long walls on big WNW

✈️ Trip picks

Global hollow-surf windows from the latest alert.

Peniche/Supertubos Portugal Nov 19-20 (low conf)North Shore Oahu Nov 15-16 (moderate)
What makes this different

The history-driven forecast

Models predict swell. They don't know how El Porto's sandbars, tide and swell angle actually surfed on real days. Wave Lord keeps that record privately, and every logged session sharpens the public score.

Log real sessions

After each surf, Wave Lord rebuilds what made the waves: each swell train, wind timing, tide stage, water temp and storms. Gaps are marked missing, never guessed. The log itself stays private.

Match today to the past

Today's buoy and tide are compared with every logged day on four measures: wave height, period, swell direction and the high tide. How the closest days surfed shapes the score.

Verify and improve

Every forecast gets checked against what happened. Model biases and local corrections go into the skill notes, so each run should be a little sharper than the last.

Live analog finder

Logged days most like right now

Loading current buoy and tide…

Starter method: a simple distance on four measures across 13 Santa Monica Bay days with logged buoy numbers. It shows conditions only; the personal session notes are private.

Track record

Building the track record

6
forecasts logged
0
verified so far
19
sessions logged

Verification starts once the first forecast days have passed. Each check records height, period, wind and timing errors, plus the score against how the day actually surfed.

Model skill notes

2026-11-12: first logged forecast run; nothing yet to verify. Early notes:

  • Open-Meteo GFS-wave/ECMWF-WAM nearshore points at El Porto (33.90,-118.43) run far below buoy 46221 (e.g. 0.4-0.6 m vs 1.0 m observed at 3:26 AM 12 Nov). Use them for timing/period/direction only; size from 46221/46222 and NWS PZZ655 wave detail.
  • Open-Meteo gfs_seamless and ncep_hrrr_conus returned identical values for the first ~48 h (seamless blends HRRR); treat as one source.
  • Surfline kbyg API returned 502 on 12 Nov; Windy not retrievable without JS.
Regime behind this run
ENSO
El Niño Advisory; CPC ensodisc: Niño-3.4 +2.1C monthly, strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through JFM 2027 (>83%)
Pattern
storm train: upper low into N Baja Thu night (showers/tstms), cold front Fri night-Sat AM, another system Sun night-Tue, another Wed (AFD LOX 12 Nov 1:18 AM)
Santa ana
none; weak morning offshore drift only
Tropics
NHC: TD Pena (CP04) near 9.8N 172W, no SoCal swell relevance; no active East Pacific storms listed
SST
46221 23.7C, 46222 24.0C (~75F)
Hazards
Very large long-period W-NW Aleutian swell peaking Sat; High Surf Advisory Central Coast/VTA zones to noon Mon; Coastal Flood Watch Fri night-Sat; NWS: advisory-level surf possible for LA/VTA west-facing beaches