Current regime (as of Wednesday, 11 Nov 2026, evening, America/Los_Angeles)
ENSO
El Niño is present. CPC Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory.
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). CPC also flags a substantial chance of a historic event (3-month RONI at or above +2.5°C, which would exceed previous events back to 1950): 54% for SON, 83% for OND, and 70% for NDJ, from the official outlook dated 8 Oct 2026.
Latest official numbers:
| Index | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niño 3.4 weekly SST departure | +2.3°C | latest weekly, in the 9 Nov 2026 CPC weekly update | CPC “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions,” prepared 9 Nov 2026 |
| Niño 3 weekly | +3.5°C | same | same |
| Niño 1+2 weekly | +4.7°C | same | same |
| Niño 4 weekly | +0.2°C | same | same |
| Niño 3.4 monthly (traditional) | Oct 2026 SST 30.01°C, anomaly +3.25°C; Sep 29.60°C, +2.84°C | monthly | CPC sstoi.indices (ERSST) |
| ONI (3-month Niño 3.4 anomaly) | JAS 2026 +2.16°C; ASO 2026 +2.46°C | through Aug–Oct; SON not yet published | CPC oni.ascii.txt |
| Monthly diagnostic | El Niño Advisory; Sep Niño-3.4 reached +2.1°C in that discussion (CPC’s relative/RONI framing in the write-up). Next Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. | issued 8 Oct 2026 | CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion |
The weekly Niño 3.4 departure (+2.3°C as of the 9 Nov update) is lower than the October monthly traditional anomaly (+3.25°C). Those are different products (weekly vs monthly, and the diagnostic also uses relative SST / RONI). Do not mix them into one number.
Kelvin waves and equatorial subsurface
Downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves were initiated in December 2025, January 2026, March 2026, and June 2026 (CPC weekly heat-content evolution, 9 Nov 2026). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist east of the Date Line; negative anomalies have strengthened west of the Date Line and expanded slightly eastward. Upper-ocean (0–300 m) positive anomalies persisted from August through mid-October and have decreased slightly since mid-October. The 8 Oct diagnostic discussion had noted subsurface temperatures in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific and a deeper-than-average thermocline.
PDO and MJO
- PDO: still strongly negative. ERSST v5 PDO was -1.52 in Sep 2026 and -2.26 in Oct 2026 (Jan–Oct 2026 all negative, between about −1.0 and −2.3). Source: NCEI
ersst.v5.pdo.dat. November 2026 was not yet posted. A negative PDO (cooler North Pacific pattern) can coexist with this strong El Niño; it is not a reason to ignore the warm local water at the beach. - MJO: not confidently parsed. A CPC daily MJO index file (
proj_norm_order.ascii) was retrieved, but the phase and amplitude were not clearly readable from that format in this pass. The BoM RMM realtime file returned HTTP 500. Marked not confidently retrieved rather than guessed. CPC notes that MJO-related wind anomalies can affect equatorial subsurface conditions.
Local SST (Southern California)
Buoy water remains very warm for mid-November, around 75°F:
- NDBC 46221 / CDIP 028 (Santa Monica Bay): about 23.8–23.9°C (74.8–75.0°F) on the morning of 11 Nov 2026; 24.0°C (75.2°F) at 46222 on 9 Nov.
- A formal SST-anomaly map versus local climatology (how many degrees above normal at the coast) was not retrieved this pass. The ~75°F reading itself is from the buoys.
Santa Ana / offshore winds (this past week)
Official NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard (LOX) products, not just beach-level ENE drift:
- Thu 5 Nov 2026: Wind Advisory (WI.Y.0070) for the Santa Barbara County coast and Santa Ynez Mountains; expired late that night (NPW issued 11:12 PM PST said the advisory had expired and winds were below advisory levels).
- Sat 7 Nov 2026: Wind Advisory (WI.Y.0071) for the Malibu Coast, Santa Monica Mountains, Santa Clarita Valley, and Ventura valleys, 2 AM to 2 PM PST. Northeast winds 15–25 mph with gusts 30–45 mph on the valleys and Malibu Coast; 20–30 mph with gusts 45–55 mph in the mountains. The 2:07 AM PST AFD called it a “weak to moderate Santa Ana” peaking that morning, with a Red Flag mention in the same discussion. The advisory expired at 2 PM, matching “offshores into midday.”
- 8–11 Nov: AFD (e.g. 2:48 AM PST Mon 9 Nov) said there would still be “some weak offshore winds each morning but nothing close to advisory levels.” The 11 Nov morning AFD kept weak offshore flow and looked ahead to rain Friday into the weekend as a trough arrives. Observed at El Porto: light E/ENE or calm through late morning on 9, 10, and 11 Nov, with onshore filling around 11:30 AM–noon on 9–10 Nov.
Storm track, fronts, and tropics
- CPC weekly (9 Nov): during October, below-average heights and temperatures were evident over the eastern North Pacific and the U.S. West Coast. A trough is forecast to bring area rain Friday into the weekend (AFD 11 Nov).
- Active NHC tropical-cyclone status for 11 Nov 2026 was not separately pulled this evening; mark as not freshly checked today if a current storm list is needed.
2026-11-12 (4 AM run)
- ENSO: CPC ENSO Diagnostic page shows El Niño Advisory; Niño-3.4 +2.1C (monthly), Niño-3 +3.0, Niño-1+2 +3.9; strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through JFM 2027 (>83%).
- Pattern: active storm train. Upper low into N Baja tonight (showers, tstm chance coastal waters), cold front Fri night-Sat AM (0.25-1.0 in rain), another system Sun night-Tue, another Wed (LOX AFD 1:18 AM 12 Nov). Cooling to normal.
- Swell: very large long-period W-NW Aleutian swell peaking Saturday; Central Coast 18-25 ft NW-facing shores possible; at least advisory surf for LA/VTA west-facing beaches; Coastal Flood Watch Fri night-Sat. North Pacific stays very active into next week.
- Santa Ana: none. Weak morning offshore drift only.
- Tropics: NHC CurrentStorms lists only TD Pena (CP04) near 9.8N 172W. No East Pacific swell source.
- SST: 46221 23.7C, 46222 24.0C (~75F), still very warm.